EUR/USD Forecast Euro Dollar October 1, 2020 FOREX24.PRO

Aussie is a new victim of China. Forecast as of 13.10.2020

Aussie is a new victim of China. Forecast as of 13.10.2020

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

Sometimes, the Predator turns into the Prey, and the Prey, on the contrary, becomes the Predator. During the time of the US-China trade wars, the US looked as an aggressor attacking a victim, which was China. China couldn't adequately retaliate. US import tariffs pressed down China’s exports while selling off China’s Treasury stocks would hardly have been that effective. China was afraid of capital outflows, so it had to make concessions. Now, the victim has recovered and is looking for prey among weaker countries.
Financial Times, referring to the sources familiar with the matter, reports that Chinese power stations and steel mills have been verbally told to immediately stop using Australian coal. Coal is one of the primary components of Australia’s exports. China seems to be a vindictive country. It hasn’t forgiven Australia for the allegations to the COVID-19 laboratory origins, expressed a few months ago. The prey turned out into a predator. Will China continue retaliatory measures against Australia?
This time, Canberra has nothing to respond with. The share of Australia’s exports to China is about 40%, China’s exports to Australia are less than 2%. The trade war hasn’t yet started, but there is already the winner. The problems with the Australian coal exports and the yuan’s drop started an AUDUSD correction down. The AUD bulls used to seem invincible before. Australia’s economy was supported by several factors. The iron ore prices rose. China’s economy, being one of the key trade partners of Australia, was recovering rapidly.The AUDUSD rose by 31% from the low hit in March.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and iron ore prices


Source: Bloomberg
The AUD rise resulted from the rapidly growing US stock indexes and the global economic recovery in the third quarter. However, the AUDUSD rally will continue so fast in the next six-nine months. China’s PMI slows down, the US epidemiological situation is still difficult, the euro area faces the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, China attacks Australia, so it is natural that Aussie buyers are discouraged. The median gauge of Bloomberg’s experts for the AUD is $0.72, which corresponds to the current levels.
Nonetheless, there are always two currencies in a currency pair. According to Goldman Sachs, a ‘blue wave’ in the USA (Democrats take control of both the White House and the Congress after the election on November 3) and positive news about the coronavirus vaccines should send the USD down to the lows recorded in 2018. UBS and Invesco share a similar opinion. They recommend their clients to sell the dollar as Joe Biden’s rating grows. Hedge funds seem to follows such ideas.

Dynamics of USD and US dollar speculative positions


Source: Bloomberg
Monthly AUDUSD trading plan
I believe Beijing and Canberra will solve political problems, the yuan will resume its rally, and the Democrats will win in the elections. In this scenario, it is still relevant to buy the AUDUSD on the corrections down. The medium-term targets are at 0.745 and 0.762.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-is-a-new-victim-of-china-forecast-as-of-13102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020

Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

Hope for the best but do the rest. Although the major drivers of the AUDUSD 30% rally up from the March low have been the rapid recovery of China’s economy and the increase in the global risk appetite, the Australian dollar has domestic drivers as well. Australia efficiently manages the pandemic, and the government is willing to expand the fiscal stimulus. Australia’s Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is willing to provide money until the labor market returns to the full employment state. It is about the unemployment rate of 5%. The current unemployment rate is 6.8%, and it may grow to 8%-10%. It will hardly drop back to 5% before 2022.
Investors expect the Treasury to boost the fiscal stimulus. As a result, the net debt burden will increase to AU$712 billion or to 38% of the GDP. At the same time, the national debt ceiling will be increased above AU$1.1 trillion, and the income tax hike, planned for 2022, will be delayed. In the USA, the national debt exceeds 100% of GDP, in the euro-area, it is close to 100%, the Japanese government debt is more than 200%. Canberra can afford additional stimulus. Besides, the expansion of government bonds issue will support the capital inflow in Australia and strengthen the Aussie. Australia’s government bond rates are the highest among the countries issuing the G10 currencies.

Dynamics of Australia’s net debt, % of the GDP


Source: Bloomberg
Carry trades and high investment rating of Australia’s securities support and will support the AUDUSD bulls amid the high risk appetite and low volatility. That is the reason for the AUD correlation with the US stock indices. The turmoil in the S&P 500 market ahead of the US presidential election will suggest the AUDUSD consolidation.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and S&P 500


Source: Trading Economics
In addition to the size of the additional fiscal stimulus, investors are focused on the RBA's willingness to expand the volume of monetary support. In September, the RBA officials discussed such measures as the interest-rate cut down to 0.1%, purchasing bonds with longer maturities than currently under QE, negative borrowing costs, and even FX interventions. The latter two options are aggressive, and the regulator will hardly resort to such measures. But it is likely to cut the interest rate by 12 basis points. The derivatives market suggests it will happen already this year.

Monthly AUDUSD trading plan

Expectations of monetary expansion is a bearish factor for the AUD. However, I don’t think the RBA will do it in October. It is likely to leave the door open for the interest rate cut in the future and set the Aussie bulls back using verbal interventions. The RBA will hardly turn the uptrend down, so, its dovish stance will give a chance to buy the pair of the price fall. Following ht consolidation in the range of 0.695-0.735, the AUDUSD is likely to continue its rally up to 0.76 and 0.79.

For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-goes-against-the-wind-forecast-as-of-05102020/ ?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Forecast March 4, 2020 USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast January 31, 2020 AUD to EUR Forecasts for 2019 - YouTube USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast March 9, 2020 USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast June 11, 2020 USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast April 1, 2020 EUR/USD and GBP/USD Forecast August 1, 2019 USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast June 1, 2020 EUR/USD and GBP/USD Forecast January 13, 2020

Euro (EUR) Forecast & Predictions Euro exchange rate forecasting strategies Did you know the eurozone (the 19 countries who use the euro as a currency) is actually the world’s 2nd largest economy? 1 In recent years, the European Union (EU) has faced considerable challenges, and the AUD/EUR exchange rate has fluctuated substantially in the last ten years from a high over A$2.00 to a low of A ... Euro Forecast: Performance after US Elections, COVID-19 Vaccine is a Bad Omen for EUR/JPY, EUR/USD . 2020-11-11 15:00:00 US Dollar Cycle Analysis: Implications for DXY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD. 2020-11 ... The averaged exchange rate 1.583. EUR to AUD forecast at the end of the month 1.572, change for March -2.1%. Euro to Australian Dollar forecast for April 2021. In the beginning at 1.572 Australian Dollars. Maximum 1.618, minimum 1.572. The averaged exchange rate 1.589. EUR to AUD forecast at the end of the month 1.595, change for April 1.5%. EUR/USD Forecast Euro Dollar October 1, 2020 assumes the development of a correction and a test of the resistance area near the level of 1.1755. Where can we expect a rebound and an attempt to continue the pair’s fall to the area below the level of 1.1385. A test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI) will be in favor of reducing the currency pair. Cancellation of the EUR/USD ... Euro Forecast: Performance after US Elections, COVID-19 Vaccine is a Bad Omen for EUR/JPY, EUR/USD 2020-11-11 15:00:00 US Dollar Cycle Analysis: Implications for DXY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD AUD EUR Forecast, Australian Dollar to Euro forecast for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. AUD to EUR predictions by month. Forecast open, maximum, minimum and close exchange rate. Outlook for years. According to our Forecast System, EUR to AUD Forex pair is a not so good long-term (1-year) investment*. "Euro / Australian Dollar" exchange rate predictions are updated every 5 minutes with latest Forex (Foreign Exchange) rates by smart technical market analysis. To convert from EUR to AUD all you need to do is divide 1 by the rate. For example, if the AUD to EUR exchange rate is 0.63, then 1 Australian dollar is worth €0.63 or 63 Euros. You divide 1 by 0.63 to find the EUR to AUD exchange rate of 1.5873. In this example, 1 Euro is equivalent to $1.5873 Australian dollars. Der aktuelle Australischer Dollar/Euro Kurs AUD/EUR - Währunsgrechner für den Wechselkurs von Australischer Dollar in Euro. At the time of the publication of the forecast, the Euro/US Dollar rate is 1.1813. As part of the Forex forecast for October 13, 2020, we should expect an attempt to grow and test the resistance level near the 1.1845 area. Further, the rebound and the continuation of the fall of the Euro/Dollar currency pair. The potential target of such a ...

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